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Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities: Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a more active fiscal policy. Improve the fiscal deficit ratio, and ensure that the fiscal policy will continue to exert more efforts. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that the fiscal policy continued the general tone of "positive", which reflected the stability and continuity of the policy, but emphasized "more positive", which was mainly reflected in the increase of deficit ratio and the scale of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds. It is expected that the scale of fiscal expenditure will be significantly increased and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure will be increased next year. The generalized deficit ratio probability in 2025 is higher than that in 2024. In his view, the narrow sense of deficit ratio has a high probability of exceeding 3%, and the improvement of deficit ratio has special significance, which can achieve triple effects. First, the increase in deficit ratio means a further increase in the deficit scale, which is conducive to expanding expenditure, strengthening the ability of fiscal countercyclical adjustment, better preventing risks, benefiting people's livelihood and stabilizing growth. Second, deficit ratio is different from other financial instruments, and the public pays great attention to deficit ratio and its changes. Therefore, fiscal policy should use limited "bullets" to stabilize expectations, and the same fiscal stimulus scale should be reflected in deficit ratio as much as possible. Deficit ratio can better convey policy intentions and has strong policy signal significance; Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. Third, the high probability of deficit is still dominated by central government bonds. The form of transfer payment can better ensure the stability of grassroots financial resources and increase the disposable degree of local financial resources, which is conducive to the local government's "three guarantees" work. (SSE)The forecast of the European Central Bank assumes that the oil price will be $81.8 per barrel in 2024, $71.8 per barrel in 2025, $70.1 per barrel in 2026 and $69.2 per barrel in 2027.Spot silver fell below $31 per ounce, down 2.82% in the day. COMEX silver fell 4.00% in the day and is now quoted at $31.65 per ounce.

Italian 10-year bond yields continued to rise, rising by 10 basis points to 3.29%.Russian officials: The failure of sanctions against Russia to achieve geopolitical goals will cost the EU 1.5 trillion euros. On the 12th local time, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko said that Russia has adapted to various sanctions and will develop relations with all countries willing to cooperate. He said that the EU is on a road of self-destruction, and any geopolitical goal cannot be achieved through sanctions. If the EU wants to refuse cooperation with Russia, this is the EU's choice, but most assessments show that this choice has caused the EU to suffer a loss of 1.5 trillion euros.Dong Ximiao, Principal Investigator of Zhaolian: Support small and medium-sized banks to better establish a long-term mechanism for capital replenishment. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas and firmly hold the bottom line of systemic risks. The meeting also proposed that the risks of local small and medium-sized financial institutions should be properly handled. Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, believes that more resolute and effective measures should be taken to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, speed up the reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and firmly hold the bottom line of no systemic risks. (SSE)

The yield of German 10-year government bonds rose by 5 basis points to 2.18%, the highest level in two weeks.Professor Wu Yin, School of Economics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics: In order to attract more social capital to participate in the construction of industrial innovation system, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed that scientific and technological innovation should lead the development of new productive forces and build a modern industrial system. In this regard, Wu Yin, a professor at the School of Economics of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics and director of the Institute of Political Economy, said in an interview that the meeting emphasized the important role of scientific and technological innovation in accelerating the formation of new quality productive forces, and made it clear that the core kinetic energy of building a modern industrial system comes from a number of future industries based on scientific and technological innovation. The meeting also emphasized improving the multi-level financial service system, giving sufficient financial support to potential industries and enterprises, and attracting more social capital to participate in the process of industrial innovation system construction. (SSE)Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1%, popular Chinese stock Yum! China rose by 2.8%, bilibili and Baidu rose by over 1.2%, Ali, New Oriental, Ideality, Pinduoduo and Netease rose by at most 1%, and YINN rose by 1.6%.